Chapter 18 Sweeter Than Expected
Honestly, Sara didn't want to sell the treasure and use the money to get by.
They couldn't keep it a secret from others. If the treasure is sold, the royal family and other families would definitely find out. It's like they're saying, "Something's up, explain yourself!" Right now, they can't explain why they need the money, so no matter how she thinks about it, it's a bad idea.
It's true that their family storage is running low, and if a disaster strikes, their people will starve. But they haven't had a famine yet. They should be praying to God for a good harvest and getting back to a healthy state.
"Uncle, I think we should sell the treasure and use the money to get by, but only as a last resort. In a way, it's like our last trick."
"What do you mean?"
"I don't think we can sell the treasure without the royal family or other houses finding out. If we don't do it discreetly, they'll think something's fishy in Grandchester."
"Hmm..."
"We can't reduce the amount of grain we distribute either. Just like selling the treasure, there's a high chance of outsiders noticing."
"You mean that?"
"Grandchester is a territory that supplies wheat to the market. If we don't supply a certain amount, the price of grain will skyrocket, and the market will be in chaos. The royal family won't ignore this. They'll investigate why our supply decreased."
No matter how strict it is, they need to think of a way to increase their storage without the royal family or other houses finding out.
'Hmm? We don't necessarily need to store the grain in our territory's warehouse. If we can open the warehouse during a famine, that's all that matters. It doesn't have to belong to our territory.'
"Uncle, why don't we create a merchant guild?"
"You mean establish a new merchant guild?"
"That's right. We'll keep the same amount for storage, and limit the amount of grain we distribute to the market to prevent chaos. Then, we'll sell the rest to the new merchant guild. The grain merchants in our territory will buy from this guild."
"Hmm..."
"If a famine hits, we'll open the merchant guild's warehouses to the people. Officially, we'll have sold the grain to the merchant guild, so it won't be considered part of our reserves. It will just be the merchant guild 'humanely' providing its reserves to the people."
"I see. So, since we're selling it to the merchant guild, there won't be any suspicion."
"Yes. But since it's not part of the territory's reserves, we'll have to pay taxes on the profits from the sale."
"That can't be helped. It's still better than being suspected and audited. I'll discuss it with Father for now."
"When the merchant guild buys grain from the territory, why don't we keep the promissory notes instead of cashing them in? Then, when the territory's finances are healthy in a few years, we can buy the grain back from the merchant guild as reserves. We can offset the payment with the promissory notes we've kept."
"That makes sense."
Robert and the bureaucrats nodded in agreement.
"But that's not to say there aren't any problems."
"What do you mean?"
"If a famine occurs before we can prepare sufficient reserves, we won't be able to cope. I think it'll take a few years to stabilize the operation."
"I see."
"Do you have any idea how much the next harvest will yield?"
"The harvest yield is something you can't know until right before the harvest, right?"
"That's true in the sense that you can't know the exact amount, but by observing the weather and farming conditions, you can make an educated guess about the yield."
"Huh? Are you talking about divination or something?"
"No, it's not that."
Robert turned to face the bureaucrats. Then, Pollux, one of the bureaucrats who had returned, reacted. As a bureaucrat in charge of agricultural products with a long history of experience, he had once traveled around to various farming villages as a tax collector and was merciless towards those who tried to evade taxes. However, he was also a bureaucrat with a sense of justice who would go out of his way to deliver food and firewood to struggling villagers.
"As Miss Sara said, it's true. It's a recent story, so I didn't think Miss Sara knew about it. We've known for a while that there's a close connection between the weather and wheat harvests, but my subordinate said, 'You can calculate the approximate harvest amount from the weather,' and we've been verifying it for the past 2 years."
"What?! I haven't received any reports!"
"I apologize. It's been difficult to submit a report due to our busy situation, so I kept putting it off."
"I see. So, what are the results?"
"The predictions vary depending on the time period, but they're accurate to a certain extent."
"What?!"
Not just Robert, but the other bureaucrats were also surprised.
"Mr. Pollux, is it only that person who can make predictions?"
"Yes, that's right. According to them, 'You need knowledge of astronomy and math to relate weather records to harvests,' and there's no one else who can understand what they're saying."
That's probably true. Even in my past life, predicting harvests required advanced knowledge and technology. Sarasa had experience working in the futures market, so she knew the value of that information.
"Mr. Pollux, please arrange a meeting with that person as soon as possible."
"Understood."
For now, we made arrangements to meet with the bureaucrat who could predict harvests tomorrow. Of course, this schedule adjustment was also quickly handled by the executive maid.
"How much stockpile is needed, and how much is currently lacking? Can you confirm that?"
"Yes, that's already been done."
Ben, who had directly checked the storehouse and confirmed the stockpile amount, presented a paper comparing the necessary amounts by type with the current stockpile. In addition to wheat, there were also beans, rice (and rice existed in this world!), and other non-perishable food items, as well as fuel like firewood.
Moreover, it seemed that blankets and cloth had been stockpiled for emergency use, but they had been sold off without anyone knowing, leaving only moth-eaten blankets in the warehouse.
"Let's start buying necessary supplies other than wheat for now. We can only prepare within our means, praying that we won't face famine or disasters."
Then, Ben came up with a new proposal.
"We can sell some of the stored food before it goes bad. What do you think about selling it to the merchant guild you mentioned earlier?"
"Why would we do that?"
"We're selling it at a ridiculously low price at them, but it's surprisingly popular. However, when I look at the selling price on the market, I think it's a rip-off."
"I see. The merchant guild that the lord directly runs is not profit-driven, so it might be a good idea."
Robert let out a sigh and muttered, "Ugh... it's pathetic that Grandchester, which has the best granary in the country, is in this state."
"There's no use sighing about it. Shouldn't we focus on increasing our cash income from sources other than wheat for now? We could consider mining in the mountains or logging in the forest."
"Sara, expanding the Great Forest is Grandchester's long-cherished desire, but there are powerful monsters living there, and no one makes a living from logging."
"But didn't we learn that the current Grandchester territory was land opened up by our ancestors?"
"You're well-studied. That's correct. Most of Grandchester territory used to be part of the Great Forest. The Count of Grandchester opened it up and was ennobled for his achievement."
"Then, can't we expand it again?"
"We don't have the resources for that. Only skilled hunters or adventurers can drive out the monsters, but there are hardly any hunters since the expansion isn't progressing. Moreover, the Grandchester Adventurer's Guild is quite small."
"That's a dead end. It doesn't seem like a problem that can be solved quickly. How did our ancestors manage to open up the land?"
"It's a story from over 500 years ago, so it's hard to say how much of it is true, but back then, the Count Grandchester supposedly succeeded in opening up new lands using his unique magic, 'Zense no Kioku (Memories of a Past Life).' Until then, the Count was just a poor noble with a title, but thanks to him, the Grandchester family became Marquis. That's why they call him the founder of the family."
"Huh? What? What?"
"Well, you don't have to take history too seriously, just listen to it half-heartedly."
Robert was smiling wryly, but Sara was not having it.
'Wait, so you're saying our ancestor had memories from a past life? Does that mean he was a reincarnator?'
"Uncle, are there any records of our ancestor's life, like diaries or something?"
"They're in the special room of the library. Only members of the Grandchester family can access them, and you need the head of the family's permission. I think it'll be okay for you, Sara, but I'll get permission from Father just in case."
"Thank you."
'For now, I'll wait for permission. If I can see our ancestor's records, maybe I'll find some hints.'
But it's not like Sara can do anything about it right away, so she'll set the priority low for now.
"Anyway, relying solely on agriculture, which is unpredictable, and not having enough savings or cash is dangerous. Once we finish this term's work, we'll have to thoroughly investigate the past ledgers that might have irregularities. If we find any underreporting, we'll have to correct it and pay the shortage before the next audit. Can we really pay it all at once?"
"Uh, that's..."
Robert was at a loss for words, and the bureaucrats could only look down.
"The amount on the issued promissory notes is more than the territory's assets, and our savings are severely lacking. As it stands, Grandchester is on the verge of bankruptcy and should be aware of it."
In reality, it's not that bad. If the merchants collude and try to cash in their promissory notes all at once, they can temporarily drain the Grandchester family's assets. Even with limited savings, as long as there are no disasters or famines, there won't be a big problem. And even if additional taxes are needed, Sara didn't think the Grandchester family's finances would be severely affected. It was because she sensed a crisis in the bureaucrats' naivety, who thought "it'll be fine once the harvest is over."
Robert, unaware of his actions, was using the Grandchester family's assets as a backdrop, easily suggesting that they could use the family's wealth when in trouble. And he saw the wheat harvest as an endless source of wealth.
As a large granary territory, his thinking wasn't entirely wrong, but he lacked a "risk hedge" perspective.
He didn't properly consider the possibility of large-scale disasters destroying the fields or diseases affecting the wheat. The stored reserves alone wouldn't be enough. If a famine lasted for several years, Sara wondered if the Grandchester territory, or the Grandchester family, could really support its people.
'Basically, the Grandchester territory is wealthy, so the bureaucrats don't have a sense of crisis. My other uncle is also a carefree rich kid who's never experienced financial difficulties...'
In this world, there's also the concept of noblesse oblige. In other words, the lord has a duty to protect their people. However, Sara couldn't believe that this naivety would really protect the people. This very naivety seemed to be the greatest risk to Grandchester.
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